FXUS63 KOAX 030843
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN HAS A SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING INTO THE
GRTLKS REGIONS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. WE ARE IN-BETWEEN
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. AT 08Z...A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THRU ERN NEB
AND WRN IOWA WITH THE MAIN AREA OF MID CLDS STRETCHING FM WI INTO
IA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A SECOND AREA OF MID CLDS WAS MORE
PATCHY TOWARD ONL AND VTN...CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE
RADAR RETURNS WERE WITH THE MAIN MID CLD DECK. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WAS ALOFT...ALTHOUGH AT 07Z VTN DID REPORT LIGHT RAIN.
A VERY STRONG 140KT H3 JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH FM CANADA
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SOME LINGERING LIFT AND RH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW CLDS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THIS MORNING...WITH
THE COOLING LAGGING...THUS HIGH TEMPS WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SHOULD
BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
20-30MPH AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40KT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR WITH RH FROM CANADA PUSHES INTO THE GRTLKS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND FOR NOW HAVE SOME CLOUDS TO THE MO RIVER.
CAA SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EAST TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S FARTHER WEST. AGAIN NORTH WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE
20S. WE/LL SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SUN AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SFC LOW PRES DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROF ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...THE EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER ON THE INTENSIFY OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUN AND MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED.
BY TUES OR WED...A MUCH STRONGER TROF MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND THIS COULD BRING SOME .25 INCH RAINS TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A VARIETY OF WEATHER FROM TSRA
TO SNOW COULD DEVELOP. THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SFC CDFNT MOVG THRU THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SHLD BE THRU
THE OMA/LNK SITES BY 12Z WITH SFC WINDS BECMG NWRLY. SOME MID TO
HIGH LVL CLDS WL CONT INTO THE EARLY MRNG BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLR
THRU THE DAY. NW WINDS WL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING
TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD