FXUS63 KOAX 070937
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LIGHT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO START
SATURDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED MID
TROPOSPHERIC OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO CANADA. A
VORT MAX WAS ROTATING SWWD TOWARD NRN MN. A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
FROM SRN SASK INTO SWRN MN. AT 09Z A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL IA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED NWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS
OF ERN SD AND INTO CNTRL ND. GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURRING JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA. WILL INCLUDE FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. IT COULD BE NEEDED TODAY THOUGH. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
OCCUR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA TODAY. ONLY WENT WITH POPS OF 40 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
AMOUNT SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A TRACE UP TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH AT
SOME SPOTS. WENT WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR TODAY.
SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THEN WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND RANGE
TO THE TEENS SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE 00Z
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTN COMPARED TO THE 06Z NAM...00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN. USED
A BLEND OF MODELS FOR NOW.
MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN
THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BUT DID
VARY A BIT ON QPF. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WE WILL REACH HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD...
OUR AREA COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH END OF LIKELY CATEGORY STARTING IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN COLDER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
INITIAL CONCERNS WILL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NW SFC WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 25KT AND GUSTS 30 TO 35KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KTS AFTER 00Z AND UNDER 12KTS.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA AND THIS AREA IS UNDER A STRONG UPR
LEVEL JET THAT COVERS THE SAME AREA...IS PART OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH...AND WHERE THERE ARE SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. VARIABLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED THIS
MORNING AT KOMA AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE AT OTHER SITES AS WELL AS IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE EASY TO CREATE FLURRIES WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
THAT INFILTRATES THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY