FXUS63 KOAX 072109
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING AREA UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY END BY EARLY EVENING AS
HEATING CUTS OFF.
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH
SNOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE EAST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW AS EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT MAIN SNOW EVENT TO OCCUR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA WITH VERTICAL MOTION ENHANCED BY UPPER WAVE ACROSS
KANSAS. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR THE AREA BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. 12Z EURO ALSO SHOWING
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD COMPOUND PROBLEMS DUE TO LOW WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW.
NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES STAY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS ERN MT WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD THE
CWA. AT THE SFC...LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CWA. WL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS IN THE SOUTH WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST. MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY IS STRENGTHENING SFC GRADIENT.
12Z ECMWF CAME IN A BIT STRONGER SO 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. 1040MB+ SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD TO REFLECT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
THURSDAY WHICH WL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS AND
MAYBE EVEN LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN COULD COME
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
ALBERTA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH 08/01Z BUT SOME GUSTS OF
20+ KTS ARE LIKELY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THAT BEFORE DROPPING OFF.
MVFR CIGS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER ERN NEBR...AND THEY WERE FORECAST IN
THAT CATEGORY THROUGH TAF VALID PD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
PELLETS/GRAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THRU AFTN...BUT VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WERE MINIMAL AND ISOLD IN NATURE AND THUS NO VSBY
RESTRICTION MENTION WAS MADE IN 07/18Z TAF. FLURRIES COULD LINGER
TNGT OVER ERN NEBRASKA BUT AGAIN VSBY RESTRICTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SOME BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO ERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE CIG FCST AT ANY TAF SITE
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/KERN/CHERMOK