FXUS63 KOAX 071615
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1015 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED MORNING GRIDS FOR SNOW/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPWARD REVISION ON TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS A FEW
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF FIRST SNOW BAND HAD CLIMBED A BIT MORE THAN
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND BAND SHOULD
STILL BRING FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
ELONGATED VORT MAX PIVOTING SWD AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW WITH 100 M
HGT FALLS AT H5 AT OAX AT 12Z. ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
SNOW WILL MEASURE UNDER FIRST BAND OF SNOW...UPPED POPS REST OF
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVR SERN SD/NWRN IA CLOSER
TO ARCTIC CDFNT WL ALSO LIKELY PIVOT SWD ALONG MO RIVER INTO
EARLY AFTN ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY AS IT WILL BE TRAILING
STRONG VORT LOBE. KEPT IN WIND ADVSRY ALL AREAS AS SOME MIXING
COULD BUMP UP WINDS LOCATIONS WHERE THEY HAD BACKED OFF A BIT.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011/
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
4 PM TODAY.
&&.
.DISCUSSION... STRONG WINDS SURGING THROUGH NOW...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 30 MPH AT WAYNE...NORFOLK...ALBION AND LINCOLN AT 5 AM.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT BE OVER 30 MPH THE ENTIRE DAY...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS. RUC 925 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
MILLER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LIGHT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO START
SATURDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED MID
TROPOSPHERIC OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO CANADA. A
VORT MAX WAS ROTATING SWWD TOWARD NRN MN. A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
FROM SRN SASK INTO SWRN MN. AT 09Z A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL IA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED NWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS
OF ERN SD AND INTO CNTRL ND. GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURRING JUST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA. WILL INCLUDE FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. IT COULD BE NEEDED TODAY THOUGH. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
OCCUR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA TODAY. ONLY WENT WITH POPS OF 40 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
AMOUNT SHOULD RANGE FROM JUST A TRACE UP TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH AT
SOME SPOTS. WENT WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR TODAY.
SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THEN WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND RANGE
TO THE TEENS SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE 00Z
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTN COMPARED TO THE 06Z NAM...00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN. USED
A BLEND OF MODELS FOR NOW.
MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN
THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BUT DID
VARY A BIT ON QPF. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WE WILL REACH HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD...
OUR AREA COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH END OF LIKELY CATEGORY STARTING IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG AT THIS POINT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN COLDER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES SETTLES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS.
MILLER
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
INITIAL CONCERNS WILL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NW SFC WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 25KT AND GUSTS 30 TO 35KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KTS AFTER 00Z AND UNDER 12KTS.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA AND THIS AREA IS UNDER A STRONG UPR
LEVEL JET THAT COVERS THE SAME AREA...IS PART OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH...AND WHERE THERE ARE SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. VARIABLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED THIS
MORNING AT KOMA AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE AT OTHER SITES AS WELL AS IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE EASY TO CREATE FLURRIES WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
THAT INFILTRATES THE AREA.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY