FXUS63 KOAX 150744
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PCPN ACTIVITY OVER WRN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROF AND WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
NAM/GFS/ECM IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPPER SUPPORT...500MB-300MB QVEC
CONVG...GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME PCPN MAKING INTO THE NRN
CWA...THUS WILL LAY TOKEN 20S NORTH. ANTICIPATED WARM UP ON TRACK FOR
WED WHEN SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER WRN KS LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
DPVA...FAVORING WAA PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG WITH NWD THRUST OF LLVL
MOISTURE. BOTH NAM AND GFS ADVERTISE STRONG 305K UPGLIDE AND MOIST
ADV LATE WED NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT ONLY GFS LAYING
QPF OVER THE CWA DUE TO SMALLER COND PRES DEF AND AT THIS POINT FEEL
SLGT POPS EAST NOT UNREASONABLE. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT POPS MORE OR
LESS RELATED TO NEXT COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WITH AFTN PCPN OCCURRING WITH FROPA. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING
LEADING EDGE OF BNDRY EXITING CWA INTO KS/MO BY EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER THINK POST-FRONT PCPN POSSIBLE WITH NEXT VORT PASSING THRU.
BOTH NAM/GFS INCREASE OMEGA WHICH GENERALLY PHASES WITH UPPER LVL
QVEC LIFT.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...
THOUGH AREAS OF CIGS NEAR FL040 ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$