FXUS63 KOAX 302016
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND IF THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
PER SATELLITE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWERS...MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN
THE FLOW. WITH THE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A BAND OF
RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA (AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH) AND RADAR
RETURNS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREAS...WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE CONVECTIVE
CHARACTER TO PRECIPITATION. THIS AREA IS ALSO MORE UNSTABLE WITH
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES THROUGH 00Z. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION AREA THIS EVENING...
THUS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND
WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE SHOWERS...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT
FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB THROUGH
SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN WE WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. 12Z NAM MODEL APPEARED
TOO DRY AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WETTER 12Z GFS SOLUTION. A
LITTLE SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY...BUT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THE REST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNTIL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850 MB MOISTURE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WILL
DELAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY...AND FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED
THUNDER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT NOT STRONG INSTABILITY. THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION IS WARMER THAN THE GFS SUNDAY...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE THE GFS
MEX NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY
OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AT
THIS POINT THE CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SEEMS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN/POSSIBLE
RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THUS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
COVERAGE. CURRENTLY HAVE A MENTION AT KOFK INTO THIS EVENING AND
MAY NEED TO ADD TO KLNK AND KOMA IF THE PRECIPITATION AREA HOLDS
TOGETHER. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND MENTIONED A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS
AT KOMA AND KLNK. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LOCAL IFR WITH THE PRECIPITATION AREAS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM....MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY