FXUS63 KOAX 010743
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
243 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
COOL PATTERN TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
DEPARTING LATE SEASON STORM DEPARTS INTO CANADA BUT LEAVES BEHIND
A BROAD COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. PATTERN RECOVERS TUESDAY
/WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH
PROVIDING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES TODAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR 310 K SURFACE INCREASES
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS THIS INCREASE ACROSS KS. OTHERWISE THERMAL UPPER THROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
INTO NWRN ZONES. COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW
THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY AND PERHAPS THICKER CIRRUS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES THERE EVEN MORE. LESS WIND
TONIGHT AND STILL RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS
TO DROP INTO LOWER/MID 30S ALTHOUGH REMNANT CLOUDS COULD KEEP SOME
READINGS UP AND THE STILL DRY AIR MAKES FROST COVERAGE
QUESTIONABLE. NONETHELESS...ALTHOUGH NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES YET...
WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN GRIDS AND FROST/FREEZE IN HWO.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OVER
TODAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. DRYNESS OF AIR MASS MAKES PRECIP CHANCES
QUESTIONABLE...BUT WOULD SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CUMULUS. WITH
WEAK WAVE DROPPING ACROSS AREA STILL WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOP...REFERENCE NW MT/NRN ID
SAT EVENING WHERE THIS ENERGY WAS STARTING TO DROP INTO U.S...BUT
LEFT FORECAST DRY.
YET ONE MORE COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH MANY READINGS SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AM...ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW NW COULD KEEP THEM A DEG/TWO
WARMER. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TUE/WED MAX TEMPERATURES AS READINGS
CLIMB CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK REASONABLE NEAR/BEHIND FRONT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...IF 00Z ECMWF WOULD VERIFY WITH A SHARPER TROUGH
INTO NRN ZONES TRAILING LARGER TROUGH NORTH OF THERE...POPS MAY
NEED BOOSTING IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT GUSTING TO AROUND
25KT...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING TO AROUND 5KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/MAYES