FXUS63 KOAX 012016
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DOMINATING FEATURE PER WV IMAGERY WAS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO...NETWORK PROFILERS AND SATL
WINDS WAS REVEALING A SMALLER CIRCULATION SITUATED OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE DEEP MIXING THIS AFTN HAS PUSHED DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOW 20S IN ERN NEB...AND WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN WEST CNTRL IA. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE PLAINS
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THRU THE EARLY PART OF
THIS WEEK.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT POPS WED NIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF FROPA INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. BNDRY AND ASSOCIATED LOW/LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z THURS.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS/ECM HAVE DIVERGED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
TO HANDLE SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN ERN CO ON FRIDAY. THE ECM IS
SLOW TO DEEPEN AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS IT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY. GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN ERN CO BUT QUICKLY WASHES AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN MN AND BECOMES THE DOMINATE
FEATURE. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LVL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF...AND
AT THIS POINT WILL OPT FOR DRY FCST DAY PDS THEN GO WITH SLGT POPS
OVERNIGHT PDS IN CASE NIGHTTIME LLVL JET INDUCES SOME ACTIVITY.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MID
AMERICA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KTS BY 00Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$