FXUS63 KOAX 080810
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MORNING OBS CLEARLY SHOWING A FRONTAL BNDRY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...EXTENDING SW TO TO WRN KS WITH A
WEAKER SECONDARY BNDRY FROM NRN MN TO WRN SD WITH STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOUND IN WRN SD. FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
INCOMING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THRU AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTN. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTN
ON EDGE OF CAP ALONG MOIST LLVL CONVERGENT BNDRY COVERING THE SRN CWA
WHERE MUCAPES TOP OUT AROUND 3000-3500J/KG. GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES 50-60KT...ENVIRONMENT APPEARS PRIME FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. LIKELY THAT
STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELL IN NATURE EARLY ON THEN BECOMING MORE LINEAR
THRU THE NIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE SFC BNDRY MOVES
LITTLE THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...THEN GETS SHOVED SOUTH
QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT BY SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THRU THE
DAKOTAS. HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES COUPLED WITH PROLONGED FORCING
COULD RESULT IN HEFTY PCPN TOTALS BY EVENTS END FRIDAY AFTN...
PARTICULARLY OVER WRN IA.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...INITIALLY AT KOFK BEFORE 12Z...BUT NOT AT KOMA/KLNK
UNTIL 19-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVECTION WILL ALSO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD BE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE KOMA/KLNK VICINITY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT KLNK/KOMA AS A LOW LEVEL
JETS DEVELOPS...AND WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FELT
OVERALL IT WAS TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION WITH CERTAINTY JUST YET.
WALDO
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$