FXUS63 KOAX 072233
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011
.DISCUSSION...
RETURNING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
THE WEEK ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES AT SEVERAL SITES IN OUR EASTERN
CWA...AND WAS ALSO MIXING DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE. IN FACT...PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAD DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. UPPER LOW WAS
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG JET SEGMENT NOSING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING.
MAIN UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH SEVERAL
IMPULSES ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST AND STRONGEST OF THESE
WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN OUR EAST CWA...BUT MAIN BATCH OF STORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL REACH
THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY. 40 TO 50KT 850 JET IS FORECAST TO PUSH HIGH
THETA-E AIR OVER SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. MODELS
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL POOL NEAR THE FRONT IN
KANSAS. BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS
SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL FOR
A TIME FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME
REGENERATION OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY AREA OF
INTEREST IS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE WARM FRONT MAY NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SOARS. OTHERWISE WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF FRIDAY UPPER WAVE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY
CATEGORY BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE DRY IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS FRIDAY
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE FRONT WOBBLES NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT REMAINS
IN OR NEAR THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH LATER FORECASTS...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE RAIN
WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EACH DAY.
TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY BEFORE COOLING BEGINS
WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S THEN. NORTHEAST WINDS AND
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS IN ORDER.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$