FXUS63 KOAX 250823
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAVE WHICH HELPED GENERATE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION AND
ORIENTATION OF UPPER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FEED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...OPTED TO KEEP AREA
DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR REGION LAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND SOME ACCAS-LIKE CLOUD FEATURES ON MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY FAR N. PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG REPORTED BY
SHERIFF IN NW SEWARD COUNTY FITS AWOS AT JYR/SATELLITE AND KEPT AN
E-W BAND OF DENSE FOG IN FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. MADE LITTLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINT/TEMP COMBINATION KEEP
READINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WITH WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP NW OF FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY STAY THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...LEFT IN
SMALL POPS FAR N SINCE 00Z NAM/4KM WRF DEVELOPED SOME ACTIVITY
INTO THAT REGION.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ALONG MT/CANADIAN BORDER
SHOULD BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY AND BOOSTED HIGHS TO A
MAV/MET BLEND. MODEL BLEND MIXED DOWN ENOUGH DRY AIR IN AFTERNOON
TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN BELOW HEADLINE. THIS TROUGH DOES
SHOVE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND INTO NRN
ZONES WEDNESDAY. SO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY NORTH
AND INCREASED POPS THAT AREA TUE NGT/WED. IF CONVECTION/DEBRIS
ARE LIMITED SRN ZONES...HEAT/HUMIDITY COMBO DO RETURN TO WARRANT
HEADLINE IN FUTURE FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION IN HWO.
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WED NGT/THU PUTS FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
AREA AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A RIDGE RUNNER EJECTING EWD FROM
ROCKIES. THUS BOOSTED POPS A BIT...SPCLY N/NE. ALSO TRIMMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WED NGT/THU TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION AT
NIGHT AND DEBRIS/LINGERING OR NEW DEVELOPMENT THU.
WITH GFS/ECMWF PUSHING SURFACE RIDGE INTO ERN SD/SRN MN VICINITY
THU NGT/FRI STARTED TRIMMING BACK/DROPPING POPS N DURING THAT
PERIOD. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES TO REST OF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING AT
KLNK...KOMA...AND KOFK DUE TO LOW STRATUS DECKS AND FOG. CEILINGS
MAY GO BELOW 1000 FEET AND WITH VISIBITIES AT TIMES BELOW 1 MILE.
WEAK AREA OF HIGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE HIGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/SMITH